Jakobi DavisJakobi Davis

Models

What a carbon price buys New York.

Every stop on this slider is a real run of my capstone model. Nothing in between is filled in. At $55 a ton, New York hits 70% renewables in a normal year. A bad weather year is a different story.

$55/t

Dollars per ton of CO2, from $0 to $55 in $5 steps.

  • Renewable share, average year70.5%
  • Total system cost$10.6B

    Gas supplies 29.5% of generation at this price.

Jump to

Stress test at $55/t: same price, different weather

I only ran the weather test at $55, so these bars stay put when you move the slider.

  • Poor year 0.7x56.0%

    $28.00 per MW

  • Average year 1.0x70.5%

    $25.10 per MW

  • Good year 1.3x78.3%

    $22.80 per MW

A bad year needs $120 a ton to hold 70%. That’s 118% more than $55, at $27.36 per MW.

Where these numbers come from

My CEE 4880 capstone, built in AMPL: NYISO’s 11 zones, one year of data. I only ran the normal year from $0 to $55, so the slider stops there.

It’s a model, not a forecast. Change the cost assumptions or the demand and the numbers move.

Source: CEE 4880 capstone, NYISO capacity expansion under a carbon tax, Spring 2025.